As we move through the first quarter of 2026, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market is displaying a fascinating “wait-and-see” dynamic. While the early months of the year have been characterized by a slower pace of transactions, all eyes are on the second half of 2026, which many experts believe will be the definitive turning point for the market.

At Joe Purewal Mortgages, we are tracking these trends in real-time to help our clients in Mississauga, Brampton, and across the GTA time their entries and exits strategically. Here is why 2026 is shaping up to be a year of two very different halves.

  1. The Numbers: Stability Over Volatility

According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), home sales in 2026 are forecasted to range between 60,000 and 70,000 transactions.

  • Average Price Forecast: Prices are expected to remain stable, settling between $1 million and $1.03 million for the year.
  • Current Snapshot: As of February 2026, the average selling price sat at $1,008,968, representing a 7.1% decrease from the previous year. This “softening” has provided a rare window of negotiating power for buyers that hasn’t been seen in years.
  1. The “Sideline” Effect: 100,000 Buyers Waiting

One of the most significant drivers for a late-2026 surge is the sheer volume of pent-up demand. TRREB estimates that over 100,000 potential buyers are currently waiting on the sidelines.

  • These buyers are waiting for two things: confirmed price stabilization and clearer economic signals regarding trade and inflation.
  • Once consumer confidence tips in the second half of the year, this massive wave of demand could satisfy years of delayed homeownership goals, potentially tightening market conditions rapidly.
  1. The “Missing Middle” and Condo Softness

In 2026, not all property types are performing equally.

  • Condo Apartment Surplus: High inventory levels continue to give buyers substantial leverage in the condo market, where prices have seen an 8.9% year-over-year decline to an average of $626,650.
  • The Search for the “Missing Middle”: There is a growing demand for townhomes and semi-detached properties—the “missing middle”—that bridge the gap between high-rise living and expensive detached homes ($1.33M average).
  1. Why the Second Half of 2026 Could Surge

Several factors are aligning for a robust finish to the year:

  • Inventory Absorption: New listings have dropped faster than sales in early 2026 (down 17.7% in February), which often signals that supply is tightening ahead of a price floor.
  • Economic Clarity: As the Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate at 2.25%, the predictability of borrowing costs is helping buyers move from “if” to “when”.
  • Improved Psychology: Historical patterns suggest that transactions often recover before prices do. As sales volume begins to pick up in late spring and summer, the “fear of missing out” (FOMO) may return to the GTA market.

Strategy: Your 2026 Buying Window

If you are considering a move, the first half of 2026 represents a strategic window. With higher inventory and less competition, you can negotiate better terms and avoid the bidding wars that typically return once market momentum builds.

Joe Purewal Mortgages specializes in navigating these transitional periods. Whether you’re looking for a 30-year amortization to lower payments or a flexible variable rate to ride the stability, we have the expertise to secure your spot in the 2026 market.