Will Home Prices Rise in 2025? A Deep Dive

Moderate increases expected, led by Quebec City and Edmonton. Condos may lag amid oversupply.

1. What the Data is Saying

1.1. National Forecast

• According to a Reuters poll of economists, Canadian home prices were flat in 2024 but projected to rise by roughly 8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026.
• CMHC predicts a gradual price rebound, projecting a 4.5% rise in 2024 and 10% in 2025, with benchmark average home prices reaching around CAD 780,000.
• Desjardins warns home affordability remains at near four-decade lows and, while rate cuts may ease mortgage costs, they could simultaneously fuel upward price pressure.

1.2. Regional Highlights

• Quebec City is poised to lead with a striking +11.0% forecasted price gain in Q4 2025, driven by tight inventory.
• Edmonton is expected to see +9.0% price growth in aggregate home values (Q4 2025) linkedin.com+15newswire.ca+15reuters.com+15.
• Calgary: ~4% projected growth.
• GTA and Greater Toronto: more moderate (~5% aggregate rise, +7% for detached; condos may dip ~1%) ca.

1.3. Provincial Performance (April 2025 snapshot)

A WOWA.ca report notes:

• Quebec province hit a record April 2025 average price of CAD 539,667 (+8.3% Y/Y); Quebec City average: CAD 455,647 (+14.9% Y/Y) ca.
• Alberta: average was CAD 525,135 (+5.1% Y/Y); Edmonton at CAD 470,447 (+9.1% Y/Y) ca+1newswire.ca+1.

2. Drivers Behind the Price Trends

2.1. Interest Rate Dynamics

• The Bank of Canada started cutting rates in late 2024. Lower rates improved borrowing power, encouraging mortgage activity and helping to stabilize prices.
• CMHC aligns: “lower interest rates… would help rebalance existing home‐sales activity in the latter half of the year”.

2.2. Supply–Demand Imbalance

• Canada overall faces a chronic housing shortage—CMHC estimates a need for ~3.5 million new homes to restore affordability.
• Quebec City’s severely limited supply—partly from a moratorium in Lévis—drives stronger gains.
• Quebec has a longstanding housing crisis exacerbated by policy and zoning issues wikipedia.org.
• Investment in alternative assets and stronger fundamentals will lean toward demand-heavy markets ca. 2.3. Demographic Tailwinds
• Immigration, inter-provincial migration, and remote-work dynamics have spiked demand in small cities and suburbs.
• Places like Halifax and Nova Scotia show steady demand growth, with Halifax’s average hitting $603k in April 2025 com+15wowa.ca+15newswire.ca+15.

3. Spotlight: Quebec City & Edmonton

3.1. Quebec City

• April 2025 average home price: CAD 455,647, up 14.9% Y/Y ca+1newswire.ca+1.
• Forecasted Q4 2025 aggregate rise: +11.0% to CAD 442,113 ca.
• Supply shortages are widespread—low construction, policy barriers, plus moratorium in Lévis intensify demand .

3.2. Edmonton

• April 2025 average: CAD 470,447, +9.1% Y/Y .
• Projected Q4 2025 aggregate increase: +9.0% to CAD 494,860 ca.
• Benefiting from stronger employment, lower rates, and investor interest.

4. The Condo Conundrum

4.1. Oversupply & Investor Exodus

• Condo inventory is swelling—active listings hit ~17,094 units, 46% above typical levels ca.
• According to Condos.ca, major cities like Toronto, Vancouver, + Calgary/Edmonton are seeing softened condo prices amid high inventory ca+6condos.ca+6en.wikipedia.org+6.
• Over one-third of Canadians now believe condos are a poor investment.

4.2. Forecasted Performance

• Royal LePage: while detached homes gain ~7%, condos might increase only ~3.5% nationally by Q4 2025, with some markets showing flat or mild declines.
• For instance, GTA: condos may drop ~1% aggregate by Q4 2025, while detached units rise ~7%.

4.3. Investor & Speculator Retreat

• Investor-driven demand—especially for condos—has pulled back post–pandemic: new condo sales fell 57% in Toronto in H1 2024; Vancouver condo inventory is +39% above 10-year average wikipedia.org.
• Without investor fuel, condo markets may see weaker growth or even slight softening.

5. Toronto, Mississauga & the GTA Outlook

5.1. General GTA Trend

• Royal LePage predicts GTA aggregate home prices will grow ~5.0% in Q4 2025 (~CAD 1.226M), with detached up ~7.0%, but condos lagging or flat .
• Re/Max suggests the GTA (including Mississauga) will see balanced-to-seller markets—indicative of steady wins, not breakouts ca+1wowa.ca+1.

5.2. Mississauga Specific

• As part of the broader GTA, trends mirror moderate gains with continued modest growth in detached homes and tepid condo markets.

6. Mortgages & Mortgage Agents: Rate Cuts & Guidance

6.1. Mortgage Rate Outlook

• Rate cuts from BoC in 2025 will gradually lower borrowing costs linkedin.com+5reuters.com+5marketwatch.com+5.
• While this increases affordability, the relief is incremental and may fuel competition, not panic-priced bargains ca+10reuters.com+10newswire.ca+10.

6.2. Role of a Mortgage Agent

• Mortgage agents navigate complex lending rules and negotiate with lenders—critical in 2025’s volatile rate environment.
• Especially helpful for refinancing, renewals, self-employed applicants, or broken credit situations.

6.3. Spotlight: Joe Purewal Mortgages

• Joe Purewal Mortgages is a top-rated Mortgage Agent in Mississauga & the GTA, with 800+ 5-star reviews linkedin.cominvis.ca+9joepurewal.com+9ca.linkedin.com+9.
• Provides personalized solutions for purchases, renewals, refinancing—specializing in complex cases like prior declines com.
• Known for ongoing client support and strategies to minimize mortgage costs over time .

7. Key Risks & Uncertainties

7.1. Affordability Crunch

• Despite rate relief, affordability remains stretched—Desjardins: still “near four-decade lows,” unlikely to improve quickly com+2marketwatch.com+2marketwatch.com+2.
• As fixed terms reset every 3–5 years, rising renewals could squeeze budgets com.

7.2. Supply-Side Shocks

• Construction slowed in 2024, rebounding in 2025–2026 but not at pre-2021 levels .
• Constraints from zoning, labour, material costs could limit new supply, maintaining upward price pressure .

7.3. Policy & Macro Shifts

• Foreign buyer bans, mortgage rule changes, provincial moratoria (like Lévis) could dampen or amplify results.
• Broader economic conditions: national job market, inflation trajectory, and central bank policies remain unpredictable.

9. What This Means for Homebuyers & Sellers

9.1. For Buyers

• Detached homes will see gradual appreciation—buying now locks in gains.
• Condos warrant caution; factory of resale units and price stagnation blur investment case.
• Work with an experienced mortgage agent like Joe Purewal Mortgages to optimize financing options, especially with upcoming rate shifts.

9.2. For Sellers

• Detached properties still in strong demand—balanced seller’s market expected.
• Selling a condo in oversupplied markets may require price or concession flexibility.

9.3. For Investors

• Detached homes likely offer more predictable returns; condos carry higher risk.
• Watch regional supply—tight areas like Quebec City and Edmonton can outperform.
• Financing rates and rule changes can impact ROI; expert mortgage advice is essential.

1. Actionable Tips: Navigating 2025

• Lock in a fixed-rate mortgage soon—hedge against future rate normalization.
• Consult a mortgage agent to explore refinancing, pre-approval, or renewal strategies.
• Target balanced markets in regions like GTA: stable growth without overheating.
• Monitor condo supply—look for areas with limited new development.
• Watch macro and policy announcements—foreign buyer taxes, BoC rate glidepath, provincial zoning changes could all swing value.

11. Final Word

Yes—home prices are expected to rise in 2025, but the pace will be moderate, not meteoric. Regions like Quebec City (+11%) and Edmonton (+9%) may outpace others, thanks to tight supply and affordability draws. Meanwhile, the GTA (including Mississauga) should see ~5% growth, led by detached homes; condos face slower or flat growth given oversupply and reduced investor interest.

With mortgage rates likely to stay favorable, but household affordability still stretched, working closely with a seasoned mortgage agent—such as Joe Purewal Mortgages—is wise. Their expertise in mortgages, mortgage agent services, and navigating complex approvals can make the difference between seizing opportunity and being sidelined.

About the Author

For tailored mortgage guidance in Mississauga, the GTA, or beyond, contact Joe Purewal Mortgages, a top-rated mortgage agent with expertise in helping homeowners secure low-rate mortgages and optimize their financing strategy.